Newsletters and Posts

THE CORONA VIRUS IS NO JOKE I  believe it is a mistake to treat this threat as a "temporary setback" or as a buying opportunity as so many commentators suggest, including Larry Kudlow, the president's personal cheerleader. The charts are not confirming that view, at least not so far. The S&P is now below 3200, a critical support level, and if it closes below that point two days in a row it becomes upward resistance. Next, we will be looking for 3000, an even more important support level, and no guarantees there either. The reason this virus is so important to the stock market is that it can push the economy into recession. We could see an overall decline of 25% or more in the stock market If we can…

A FEW STOCKS CARRY THE MARKET TO NEW HIGHS, WHILE MOST LANGUISH, AND THE “REAL” ECONOMY KEEPS GETTING WORSE As the election draws near, there is (of course) endless debate about whether the stock market will crash if the Democrats win the election and sweep the Senate. Almost everyone I have heard on CNBC seems to agree that the Democrats are bad for the stock market, they will raise taxes, increase regulations, and so on. But the fact is, since 1952, Democrats have historically been better for stock market performance (10.6% average annual return) than Republicans (4.8% average), according to Forbes. There is also an article on the Fidelity Investments website that concludes it really doesn’t make much difference if you go all the way back to 1789, but I…

I am re-buying GLD at this level 182.92  

New buy of QQQE (NASDAQ Equal Weight) from yesterday’s signal at 54.55 We had a new buy signal on TFX (Teleflex) this morning and bought it at 375.68, it closed at 377.48 New buy signal on SWKS at executed at 142.96, from yesterday. There is a new buy signal on CYBR. It closed at 108.92, buy half at the open and the other half at the close. A new buy signal on PPA which closed at 58.24, half at open or overnight and half at close tomorrow. A new buy signal on UFO for tomorrow at 22.00.    

BEARS BEATEN BACK, AGAIN. The DJIA continued its gravity-defying (or should we say, “tariff-defying”) climb, the S&P 500 followed suit, and so did the rest of the US stock market, even as the ten-year interest rate ticked back to 2.994% and looks ready to break out to the upside, which has caused swoons in the market the last couple of times it occurred. The Fed will be raising short-term rates in less than two weeks another ¼%, and the yield curve continues to flatten. The NASDAQ bounced off its 12-week moving average line and did not fall below that line of support, which was our fear going into this week. So, the trend remains positive for now, but just barely. The NASDAQ composite index is once again above 8000, the…

EDIT looks ready to break out of a narrow range it has been stuck in since the second week in August. I could do the same if the market rally is for real. HD may have hit the top of its range after climbing from 196 to 214. MU may have bottomed after dropping 24% over the last 6 trading days. OLED gave a sell signal yesterday, closing below the midline at 123.70. We bought it at 85 on June 29. QRVO gave a buy signal as well. ULTA looks like it may have topped out at 283. [contact-form][contact-field label='Name' type='name' required='1'/][contact-field label='Email' type='email' required='1'/][contact-field label='Website' type='url'/][contact-field label='Comment' type='textarea' required='1'/][/contact-form]